Now that I have saved some money on your light bulb expenses, you may want to “invest” that money into the lottery. They claim that lotteries are a tax who are bad at math. When a football team is down by 14 with 5 minutes left to go, the fans lose hope. When a baseball team is down by 5 going into the 9th inning, the masses change the channel. When the state offers a prize of an absurd amount of money to correctly guess 5 numbers between 1 and 100, the people line up with fist full of cash ready to accept that challenge. You be the judge about which of above events is least likely to happen.
Most states offer a large jackpot lottery game along with numerous smaller prize games with different way to play. I am going to look at 4 of the larger multiple state money generators and the different variations associated with them. Each game offers 2 drawings a week. I am going to play each variation 100 times a year for 20 years. I am playing $150 on each drawing and seeing what happens.
POWERBALL
The basic game involves picking 5 numbers between 1 and 69 and then picking a bonus number between 1 and 26. It offers the largest minimum jackpot, and the jackpots usually climb to over $100M. Their are 2 different variations to Powerball. For an extra $1, you can purchase a Powerplay multiplier. Any drawings with the jackpot less than $150M, there is a chance for a 10X multiplier that increases any winnings you may accumulate. Obviously, this does not include the Grand Prize winnings. On larger jackpots, the multipliers will be from 2 to 5. My win rate is in line with the calculated win rate. My win return was far below the calculated. This is due to none of my 450K tickets winning more than the 4th prize of $100.
Stats – 292,201,338 Combinations / 1 in 24.87 Win Rate / (Basic: $2 Ticket Price / $0.16 Expected Win Return w/o Jackpot) / (<$150M: $3 Ticket Price / $0.27 Expected Win Return w/o Jackpot) / (>$150M: $3 Ticket Price / $0.26 Expected Win Return w/o Jackpot)
My Results (Basic) – 75 Tickets per drawing / 150,000 Total Tickets / 5,944 Winners / 1 in 25.24 Win Rate / $300,000 Investment / $26,833 Winnings / $0.09 Actual Win Return / 0 of 2,000 Profitable Drawings
My Results (<$150M Powerplay) – 50 Tickets per drawing / 100,000 Total Tickets / 3,985 Winners / 1 in 25.09 Win Rate / $300,000 Investment / $48,345 Winnings / $0.16 Actual Win Return / 16 of 2,000 Profitable Drawings
My Results (>$150M Powerplay) – 50 Tickets per drawing / 100,000 Total Tickets / 3,950 Winners / 1 in 25.32 Win Rate / $300,000 Investment / $47,347 Winnings / $0.16 Actual Win Return / 16 of 2,000 Profitable Drawings
MEGAMILLIONS
This game has the hopefuls choosing 5 numbers from 1 to 75 and then picking a bonus number between 1 and 15. For an extra $1, you can purchase a Multiplier. The multipliers range between 2 and 5. The MegaMillions win rate is far better than that of Powerball due to the reduction in bonus numbers. Each game pays out prizes for hitting the bonus ball and Mega has less of them to select. My win rate is in line with the calculated win rate. My win return was far below the calculated. This again is because the best my 450K tickets did was winning the 4th prize of $500.
Stats – 258,890,850 Combinations / 1 in 14.71 Win Rate / (Basic: $1 Ticket Price / $0.17 Expected Win Return w/o Jackpot) / (Multiplier: $2 Ticket Price / $0.34 Expected Win Return w/o Jackpot)
My Results (Basic) – 150 Tickets per drawing / 300,000 Total Tickets / 20,291 Winners / 1 in 14.78 Win Rate / $300,000 Investment / $33,669 Winnings / $0.11 Actual Win Return / 5 of 2,000 Profitable Drawings
My Results (Multiplier) – 75 Tickets per drawing / 150,000 Total Tickets / 10,188 Winners / 1 in 14.72 Win Rate / $300,000 Investment / $64,576 Winnings / $0.22 Actual Win Return / 18 of 2,000 Profitable Drawings
HOT LOTTO
Hot Lotto involves picking 5 numbers between 1 and 47 and then selecting a bonus number between 1 and 19. For an extra $1, you can purchase the Sizzler. The Sizzler multiplies the winnings by 3. My win rate is in line with the calculated win rate. My win return was a little below the calculated. Of the 450K tickets, I won 1 3rd place prize of $3,000.
Stats – 29,144,841 Combinations / 1 in 17.22 Win Rate / (Basic: $1 Ticket Price / $0.24 Expected Win Return w/o Jackpot) / (Sizzler: $2 Ticket Price / $0.36 Expected Win Return w/o Jackpot)
My Results (Basic) – 150 Tickets per drawing / 300,000 Total Tickets / 17,659 Winners / 1 in 16.99 Win Rate / $300,000 Investment / $63,416 Winnings / $0.21 Actual Win Return / 1 of 2,000 Profitable Drawings
My Results (Sizzler) – 75 Tickets per drawing / 150,000 Total Tickets / 8,829 Winners / 1 in 16.99 Win Rate / $300,000 Investment / $98,697 Winnings / $0.33 Actual Win Return / 65 of 2,000 Profitable Drawings
LUCKY FOR LIFE
The game involves picking 5 numbers between 1 and 48 and then choosing a bonus number from 1 to 18. There are no multipliers available with this game. Lucky For Life offers the best win rate than the other games, because it is the only game that offers prizes for matching 2 numbers. My win rate is right in line with the calculated win rate. My win return finally outperformed the calculated. Of the 150K tickets, I hit 2 2nd place prizes of $25K a year for life (or 390K Cash Option) and a 3rd place prize of $5,000.
Stats – 30,821,472 Combinations / 1 in 8.69 Win Rate / $1 Ticket Price / $0.46 Expected Win Return w/o Jackpot
My Results – 75 Tickets per drawing / 150,000 Total Tickets / 17,263 Winners / 1 in 8.69 Win Rate / $300,000 Investment / $887,267 ($653,267 After Taxes) Winnings / $2.96 ($2.18 After Taxes) Actual Win Return / 65 of 2,000 Profitable Drawings
Recommend – Savings account, paying off bills, paying extra on credit cards or mortgage, vacation, stashing it in a treasure and burying it (don’t forget the map). If you must play the lottery, Lucky For Life offers the most reasonable appeal and not because I was a big winner. It gives you an extra chance to win that the others do not. Also, the lower level payout are far and away better than the other games. If you win, this is where you are going to win. That is why the Expected Win Rate is 2 to 3 times better than the basic versions of the other games. Unfortunately, you will not see those numbers listed on their websites. I would also recommend that if your work has a lottery pool, join for 1 ticket. Power in numbers and it cost you $1 to $3.
I am really good at math, so I don’t play the lottery. I knew I wasn’t going to hit the jackpot with my 1.4 Million tickets. I was surprised by how few of the other larger prizes that I won. Doing the math, I was really intrigued with the Luck For Life. Their jackpot is far less than the other games and it doesn’t grow over time to gigantic dream chasing amounts. It offers a boring $1,000 a day grand prize. All in all, I spent $2.8 Million on tickets and won $1.3 Million. My wife is going to kill me if she finds this out. Take away the 2 big wins for $780,000 and I will have little to show for myself. Maybe I just need some help form the numerous lottery strategists that are available. Once you get past the long odds, and you do win, you have to then factor in the chances of splitting the pot with other winners, a lump sum payout reducing the prize, and taxes eating away at least another quarter.
Many play, because they dream of how their life would be better if they won. There is probably a future article down the road if it iz Better to win the lottery or not as a world of new problems opens up. You can always hope and dream anytime. It doesn’t cost a thing.
BEAM – WhatIzBetter.com